Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding

DOI10.1214/07-AOAS111zbMATH Open1129.62098arXiv0709.0421WikidataQ57200036 ScholiaQ57200036MaRDI QIDQ995745FDOQ995745

Leontine Alkema, Samuel J. Clark, Adrian E. Raftery

Publication date: 10 September 2007

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has developed the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) for making national estimates and short-term projections of HIV prevalence based on observed prevalence trends at antenatal clinics. Assessing the uncertainty about its estimates and projections is important for informed policy decision making, and we propose the use of Bayesian melding for this purpose. Prevalence data and other information about the EPP model's input parameters are used to derive a probabilistic HIV prevalence projection, namely a probability distribution over a set of future prevalence trajectories. We relate antenatal clinic prevalence to population prevalence and account for variability between clinics using a random effects model. Predictive intervals for clinic prevalence are derived for checking the model. We discuss predictions given by the EPP model and the results of the Bayesian melding procedure for Uganda, where prevalence peaked at around 28% in 1990; the 95% prediction interval for 2010 ranges from 2% to 7%.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0709.0421

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zbMATH Keywords

random effects modelpredictive distributionsampling importance resamplinguncertainty assessmentsusceptible infection model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical epidemiology (92C60)

Cited In (11)

• Estimating HIV epidemics for subnational areas
• Bayesian Melding Estimation of a Stochastic SEIR Model
• Analyzing stochastic computer models: a review with opportunities
• Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach
• Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling With Shotgun Optimization
• A review on computer model calibration
• Use and communication of probabilistic forecasts
• Estimating uncertainty in the revised universal soil loss equation via bayesian~melding
• Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling
• Integrating geostatistical maps and infectious disease transmission models using adaptive multiple importance sampling
• Bayesian inference for the weights in logarithmic pooling

Uses Software

• QUADPACK

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