Estimating HIV epidemics for subnational areas

DOI10.1214/23-AOAS1730MaRDI QIDQ6138577zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Le Bao, Xiaoyue Niu, Mary Mahy, Peter D. Ghys

Publication date 16 January 2024

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.06618

zbMATH Keywords

importance samplingdynamic systemHIV epidemicscorrelated model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics (62Pxx)

Abstract: As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national levels. Currently, the epidemic models have been applied independently to the sub-national areas within countries. However, the availability and quality of the data vary widely, which leads to biased and unreliable estimates for areas with very few data. We propose to overcome this issue by introducing the dependence of the parameters across areas in a mixture model. The joint distribution of the parameters in multiple areas can be approximated directly from the results of independent fits without needing to refit the data or unpack the software. As a result, the mixture model has better predictive ability than the independent model as shown in examples of multiple countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Cites work

• Estimating and Projecting Trends in HIV/AIDS Generalized Epidemics Using Incremental Mixture Importance Sampling
• Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding

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