Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model

DOI10.1214/16-AOAS1000MaRDI QIDQ2628533zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors Dave Osthus, Kyle S. Hickmann, Petruţa C. Caragea, Dave Higdon, Sara Del Valle

Publication date 2 June 2017

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1491616878

zbMATH Keywords

forecastingtime seriesinfluenzaBayesian modelingSIR modelstate-space modelingsusceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical epidemiology (92C60) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20)

Recommendations

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5575608
• Modeling Influenza: Pandemics and Seasonal Epidemics
• Modeling influenza-like illness activity in the United States
• The SIRC model and influenza A
• Dynamics of an "SAIQR" Influenza Model
• Tracking epidemics with google flu trends data and a state-space SEIR model
• Modeling influenza incidence for the purpose of on-line monitoring
• The fractional SIRC model and influenza A

Cited in

(21)

• Explaining transmission rate variations and forecasting epidemic spread in multiple regions with a semiparametric mixed effects SIR model
• Dynamic Bayesian influenza forecasting in the United States with hierarchical discrepancy (with discussion)
• A switching state-space transmission model for tracking epidemics and assessing interventions
• Time-continuous and time-discrete SIR models revisited: theory and applications
• Evaluating the ALERT algorithm for local outbreak onset detection in seasonal infectious disease surveillance data
• Combining dynamic mode decomposition with ensemble Kalman filtering for tracking and forecasting
• A Review of Multi‐Compartment Infectious Disease Models
• Tracking epidemics with google flu trends data and a state-space SEIR model
• Estimating functional parameters for understanding the impact of weather and government interventions on COVID-19 outbreak
• Integer-valued functional data analysis for measles forecasting
• Real-time mechanistic Bayesian forecasts of COVID-19 mortality
• Tracking the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with a time-varying coefficient state-space model
• Analyzing the effects of observation function selection in ensemble Kalman filtering for epidemic models
• Bayesian analysis of proportions via a hidden Markov model
• Addressing selection bias and measurement error in COVID-19 case count data using auxiliary information
• Phenomenological forecasting of disease incidence using heteroskedastic Gaussian processes: a dengue case study
• Disentangling the role of virus infectiousness and awareness-based human behavior during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the European Union
• Alternative SIAR models for infectious diseases and applications in the study of non-compliance
• Asymptotic analysis of periodic solutions of the seasonal SIR model
• Modeling influenza-like illness activity in the United States
• A stochastic metapopulation state-space approach to modeling and estimating COVID-19 spread

This page was built for publication: Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2628533)