Maximum likelihood estimation of toric Fano varieties

DOI10.2140/ASTAT.2020.11.5MaRDI QIDQ2659084zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Dimitra Kosta, Kaie Kubjas, Carlos Enrique Améndola Cerón

Publication date 25 March 2021

Published in Algebraic Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.07396

zbMATH Keywords

algebraic statisticsFano varietiesmaximum likelihood degreemaximum likelihood estimationtoric fiber producttoric varieties

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of commutative algebra (e.g., to statistics, control theory, optimization, etc.) (13P25) Toric varieties, Newton polyhedra, Okounkov bodies (14M25) Computational aspects of higher-dimensional varieties (14Q15) Point estimation (62F10) Algebraic statistics (62R01)

Abstract: We study the maximum likelihood estimation problem for several classes of toric Fano models. We start by exploring the maximum likelihood degree for all $2$-dimensional Gorenstein toric Fano varieties. We show that the ML degree is equal to the degree of the surface in every case except for the quintic del Pezzo surface with two ordinary double points and provide explicit expressions that allow one to compute the maximum likelihood estimate in closed form whenever the ML degree is less than 5. We then explore the reasons for the ML degree drop using $A$-discriminants and intersection theory. Finally, we show that toric Fano varieties associated to 3-valent phylogenetic trees have ML degree one and provide a formula for the maximum likelihood estimate. We prove it as a corollary to a more general result about the multiplicativity of ML degrees of codimension zero toric fiber products, and it also follows from a connection to a recent result about staged trees.

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Cited in

(15)

• The maximum likelihood degree of toric varieties
• Toric invariant theory for maximum likelihood estimation in log-linear models
• Varieties with maximum likelihood degree one
• The maximum likelihood degree of Fermat hypersurfaces
• Reciprocal maximum likelihood degrees of Brownian motion tree models
• Maximum Likelihood Estimation from a Tropical and a Bernstein–Sato Perspective
• Toric fiber products in geometric modeling
• Classical iterative proportional scaling of log-linear models with rational maximum likelihood estimator
• Toric ideals of characteristic imsets via quasi-independence gluing
• Combinatorial geometry of rational quasi-independence models as toric fiber products
• Lawrence lifts, matroids, and maximum likelihood degrees
• Maximum likelihood estimation of log-affine models using detailed-balanced reaction networks
• Classifying one-dimensional discrete models with maximum likelihood degree one
• Maximum likelihood degree of the -stochastic blockmodel
• Matroid stratification of ML degrees of independence models

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