Maximum likelihood estimation of toric Fano varieties

DOI10.2140/ASTAT.2020.11.5zbMATH Open1461.62221arXiv1905.07396OpenAlexW2946508570MaRDI QIDQ2659084FDOQ2659084

Authors: Dimitra Kosta, Kaie Kubjas, Carlos Enrique Améndola Cerón 

Publication date: 25 March 2021

Published in: Algebraic Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study the maximum likelihood estimation problem for several classes of toric Fano models. We start by exploring the maximum likelihood degree for all $2$-dimensional Gorenstein toric Fano varieties. We show that the ML degree is equal to the degree of the surface in every case except for the quintic del Pezzo surface with two ordinary double points and provide explicit expressions that allow one to compute the maximum likelihood estimate in closed form whenever the ML degree is less than 5. We then explore the reasons for the ML degree drop using $A$-discriminants and intersection theory. Finally, we show that toric Fano varieties associated to 3-valent phylogenetic trees have ML degree one and provide a formula for the maximum likelihood estimate. We prove it as a corollary to a more general result about the multiplicativity of ML degrees of codimension zero toric fiber products, and it also follows from a connection to a recent result about staged trees.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.07396

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zbMATH Keywords

maximum likelihood estimationalgebraic statisticsFano varietiestoric varietiesmaximum likelihood degreetoric fiber product

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Point estimation (62F10) Algebraic statistics (62R01) Toric varieties, Newton polyhedra, Okounkov bodies (14M25) Applications of commutative algebra (e.g., to statistics, control theory, optimization, etc.) (13P25) Computational aspects of higher-dimensional varieties (14Q15)

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Cited In (6)

• Toric fiber products in geometric modeling
• Classical iterative proportional scaling of log-linear models with rational maximum likelihood estimator
• Toric ideals of characteristic imsets via quasi-independence gluing
• The maximum likelihood degree of toric varieties
• The maximum likelihood degree of Fermat hypersurfaces
• Maximum Likelihood Estimation from a Tropical and a Bernstein–Sato Perspective

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