A hierarchical Bayes approach to adjust for selection bias in before-after analyses of vision zero policies

DOI10.1007/S00180-021-01070-XMaRDI QIDQ2666980zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Jonathan Auerbach, Christopher Eshleman, Rob Trangucci

Publication date 23 November 2021

Published in Computational Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.10876

zbMATH Keywords

before-after studyhierarchical Bayesselection biasvision zero

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics (62-08)

Abstract: American cities devote significant resources to the implementation of traffic safety countermeasures that prevent pedestrian fatalities. However, the before-after comparisons typically used to evaluate the success of these countermeasures often suffer from selection bias. This paper motivates the tendency for selection bias to overestimate the benefits of traffic safety policy, using New York City's Vision Zero strategy as an example. The NASS General Estimates System, Fatality Analysis Reporting System and other databases are combined into a Bayesian hierarchical model to calculate a more realistic before-after comparison. The results confirm the before-after analysis of New York City's Vision Zero policy did in fact overestimate the effect of the policy, and a more realistic estimate is roughly two-thirds the size.

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Cited in

(1)

• Causal inference in transportation safety studies: comparison of potential outcomes and causal diagrams

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• RStan

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