Upper bounds on the minimum coverage probability of confidence intervals in regression after model selection
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Publication:2802733
Abstract: We consider a linear regression model, with the parameter of interest a specified linear combination of the regression parameter vector. We suppose that, as a first step, a data-based model selection (e.g. by preliminary hypothesis tests or minimizing AIC) is used to select a model. It is common statistical practice to then construct a confidence interval for the parameter of interest based on the assumption that the selected model had been given to us a priori. This assumption is false and it can lead to a confidence interval with poor coverage properties. We provide an easily-computed finite sample upper bound (calculated by repeated numerical evaluation of a double integral) to the minimum coverage probability of this confidence interval. This bound applies for model selection by any of the following methods: minimum AIC, minimum BIC, maximum adjusted R-squared, minimum Mallows' Cp and t-tests. The importance of this upper bound is that it delineates general categories of design matrices and model selection procedures for which this confidence interval has poor coverage properties. This upper bound is shown to be a finite sample analogue of an earlier large sample upper bound due to Kabaila and Leeb.
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Cited in
(18)- Finite sample properties of confidence intervals centered on a model averaged estimator
- A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist interval estimators in regression that utilize uncertain prior information
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- On the Large-Sample Minimal Coverage Probability of Confidence Intervals After Model Selection
- Confidence intervals in regression utilizing prior information
- Computation of the expected value of a function of a chi-distributed random variable
- Model averaged tail area confidence intervals in nested linear regression models
- Post-model-selection inference in linear regression models: an integrated review
- Upper bounds on the minimum coverage probability of confidence intervals in regression after model selection
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- The minimum coverage probability of confidence intervals in regression after a preliminary \(F\) test
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- ON THE COVERAGE PROBABILITY OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN REGRESSION AFTER VARIABLE SELECTION
- Two sources of poor coverage of confidence intervals after model selection
- Uniformly valid confidence intervals post-model-selection
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