Further properties of frequentist confidence intervals in regression that utilize uncertain prior information
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Publication:2802848
DOI10.1111/ANZS.12038zbMATH Open1335.62116OpenAlexW2040018716MaRDI QIDQ2802848FDOQ2802848
Abstract: Consider a linear regression model with n-dimensional response vector, regression parameter �eta = (�eta_1, ..., �eta_p) and independent and identically N(0, sigma^2) distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is heta = a^T �eta where a is a specified vector. Define the parameter au = c^T �eta - t where c and t are specified. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that au = 0. Part of our evaluation of a frequentist confidence interval for heta is the ratio (expected length of this confidence interval)/(expected length of standard 1-alpha confidence interval), which we call the scaled expected length of this interval. We say that a 1-alpha confidence interval for heta utilizes this uncertain prior information if (a) the scaled expected length of this interval is significantly less than 1 when au = 0, (b) the maximum value of the scaled expected length is not too much larger than 1 and (c) this confidence interval reverts to the standard 1-alpha confidence interval when the data happen to strongly contradict the prior information. Kabaila and Giri, 2009, JSPI present a new method for finding such a confidence interval. Let hat�eta denote the least squares estimator of �eta. Also let hatTheta = a^T hat�eta and hat au = c^T hat�eta - t. Using computations and new theoretical results, we show that the performance of this confidence interval improves as |Corr(hatTheta, hat au)| increases and n-p decreases.
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