Stochastic models of evidence accumulation in changing environments

DOI10.1137/15M1028443zbMATH Open1419.62017arXiv1505.04195MaRDI QIDQ2805268FDOQ2805268

Authors: Alan Veliz-Cuba, Zachary P. Kilpatrick, Krešimir Josić 

Publication date: 10 May 2016

Published in: SIAM Review (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Organisms and ecological groups accumulate evidence to make decisions. Classic experiments and theoretical studies have explored this process when the correct choice is fixed during each trial. However, we live in a constantly changing world. What effect does such impermanence have on classical results about decision making? To address this question we use sequential analysis to derive a tractable model of evidence accumulation when the correct option changes in time. Our analysis shows that ideal observers discount prior evidence at a rate determined by the volatility of the environment, and the dynamics of evidence accumulation is governed by the information gained over an average environmental epoch. A plausible neural implementation of an optimal observer in a changing environment shows that, in contrast to previous models, neural populations representing alternate choices are coupled through excitation. Our work builds a bridge between statistical decision making in volatile environments and stochastic nonlinear dynamics.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.04195

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zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian inferencedecision makingdrift-diffusion modelsequential probability ratio testdynamic environmentmathematical neurosciencerecursive Bayesian estimation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Sequential statistical analysis (62L10) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10) Psychophysics and psychophysiology; perception (91E30) Neural biology (92C20) Stochastic ordinary differential equations (aspects of stochastic analysis) (60H10)

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Cited In (8)

• Decision-time statistics of nonlinear diffusion models: characterizing long sequences of subsequent trials
• Bayesian evidence accumulation on social networks
• Evidence accumulation and change rate inference in dynamic environments
• Optimizing sequential decisions in the drift-diffusion model
• Tuning positive feedback for signal detection in noisy dynamic environments
• Analyzing dynamic decision-making models using Chapman-Kolmogorov equations
• The Hitchhiker's guide to nonlinear filtering
• Relating accumulator model parameters and neural dynamics

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