Connecting the latent multinomial

DOI10.1111/BIOM.12333MaRDI QIDQ2809535zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Matthew R. Schofield, Simon J. Bonner

Publication date 30 May 2016

Published in Biometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1504.04566

zbMATH Keywords

Markov chain Monte Carlocapture-recaptureMarkov basismisidentificationlinear constraint

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Contingency tables (62H17) Gröbner bases; other bases for ideals and modules (e.g., Janet and border bases) (13P10)

Abstract: Link et al. (2010) define a general framework for analyzing capture-recapture data with potential misidentifications. In this framework, the observed vector of counts, $y$, is considered as a linear function of a vector of latent counts, $x$, such that $y=Ax$, with $x$ assumed to follow a multinomial distribution conditional on the model parameters, $heta$. Bayesian methods are then applied by sampling from the joint posterior distribution of both $x$ and $heta$. In particular, Link et al. (2010) propose a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to sample from the full conditional distribution of $x$, where new proposals are generated by sequentially adding elements from a basis of the null space (kernel) of $A$. We consider this algorithm and show that using elements from a simple basis for the kernel of $A$ may not produce an irreducible Markov chain. Instead, we require a Markov basis, as defined by Diaconis and Sturmfels (1998). We illustrate the importance of Markov bases with three capture-recapture examples. We prove that a specific lattice basis is a Markov basis for a class of models including the original model considered by Link et al. (2010) and confirm that the specific basis used by Link et al. (2010) for their example with two sampling occasions is a Markov basis. The constructive nature of our proof provides an immediate method to obtain a Markov basis for any model in this class.

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Cited in

(6)

• Some rapidly mixing hit-and-run samplers for latent counts in linear inverse problems
• Extending the latent multinomial model with complex error processes and dynamic Markov bases
• Bayesian dual systems population estimation for small domains
• Some applications of genetics in statistical ecology
• Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year
• When lattice bases are Markov bases

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