The ROMES method for statistical modeling of reduced-order-model error

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Publication:2945141

DOI10.1137/140969841zbMATH Open1322.65029arXiv1405.5170OpenAlexW3102758073MaRDI QIDQ2945141FDOQ2945141


Authors: Martin Drohmann, Kevin Carlberg Edit this on Wikidata


Publication date: 9 September 2015

Published in: SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be interpreted as the (epistemic) uncertainty introduced by the reduced-order model. To model normed errors, the method employs existing rigorous error bounds and residual norms as indicators; numerical experiments show that the method leads to a near-optimal expected effectivity in contrast to typical error bounds. To model errors in general outputs, the method uses dual-weighted residuals---which are amenable to uncertainty control---as indicators. Experiments illustrate that correcting the reduced-order-model output with this surrogate can improve prediction accuracy by an order of magnitude; this contrasts with existing `multifidelity correction' approaches, which often fail for reduced-order models and suffer from the curse of dimensionality. The proposed error surrogates also lead to a notion of `probabilistic rigor', i.e., the surrogate bounds the error with specified probability.


Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.5170




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