The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic

DOI10.1017/JPR.2016.62zbMATH Open1353.92105arXiv1602.01730OpenAlexW2963371912MaRDI QIDQ2956508FDOQ2956508

Authors: Robert R. Wilkinson, Kieran J. Sharkey, Frank Ball 

Publication date: 17 January 2017

Published in: Journal of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $o$ Infected $o$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of suscpetibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.01730

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zbMATH Keywords

SIRboundmessage passinggeneral stochastic epidemicKermack-McKendrickdeterministic general epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods in Markov chains (60J22) Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J28) Epidemiology (92D30) Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J27)

Cited In (7)

• The Kermack--McKendrick epidemic model revisited
• Dominating occupancy processes by the independent site approximation
• The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack-McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models
• Analysis of a spatially inhomogeneous stochastic partial differential equation epidemic model
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Elementary proof of convergence to the mean-field model for the SIR process

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