The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic

DOI10.1017/JPR.2016.62MaRDI QIDQ2956508zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Robert R. Wilkinson, Kieran J. Sharkey, Frank Ball

Publication date 17 January 2017

Published in Journal of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.01730, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.jap/1481132834

zbMATH Keywords

SIRboundmessage passinggeneral stochastic epidemicKermack-McKendrickdeterministic general epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods in Markov chains (60J22) Applications of continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J28) Epidemiology (92D30) Random graphs (graph-theoretic aspects) (05C80) Continuous-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces (60J27)

Abstract: We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $o$ Infected $o$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of suscpetibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.

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