The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack-McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models

DOI10.1007/S00285-017-1123-8zbMATH Open1383.92090arXiv1605.03555OpenAlexW2347400488WikidataQ40242669 ScholiaQ40242669MaRDI QIDQ1679013FDOQ1679013

Authors: Robert R. Wilkinson, Frank Ball, Kieran J. Sharkey 

Publication date: 8 November 2017

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider a very general stochastic model for an SIR epidemic on a network which allows an individual's infectious period, and the time it takes to contact each of its neighbours after becoming infected, to be correlated. We write down the message passing system of equations for this model and prove, for the first time, that it has a unique feasible solution. We also generalise an earlier result by proving that this solution provides a rigorous upper bound for the expected epidemic size (cumulative number of infection events) at any fixed time $t>0$. We specialise these results to a homogeneous special case where the graph (network) is symmetric. The message passing system here reduces to just four equations. We prove that cycles in the network inhibit the spread of infection, and derive important epidemiological results concerning the final epidemic size and threshold behaviour for a major outbreak. For Poisson contact processes, this message passing system is equivalent to a non-Markovian pair approximation model, which we show has well-known pairwise models as special cases. We show further that a sequence of message passing systems, starting with the homogeneous one just described, converges to the deterministic Kermack-McKendrick equations for this stochastic model. For Poisson contact and recovery, we show that this convergence is monotone, from which it follows that the message passing system (and hence also the pairwise model) here provides a better approximation to the expected epidemic size at time $t>0$ than the Kermack-McKendrick model.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.03555

Recommendations

• The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic
• Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks
• Exact equations for SIR epidemics on tree graphs
• Pairwise approximation for SIR-type network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery
• Limit theorems for stochastic SIR epidemics in networks

zbMATH Keywords

pairwiseKermack-McKendrick modelstochastic SIR epidemicmessage passing

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Cites Work

• On a functional central limit theorem for Markov population processes
• Association of Random Variables, with Applications
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Solutions of ordinary differential equations as limits of pure jump markov processes
• Limit theorems for sequences of jump Markov processes approximating ordinary differential processes
• Exact epidemic models on graphs using graph-automorphism driven lumping
• Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks
• SIR dynamics in random networks with heterogeneous connectivity
• Approximating the epidemic curve
• A deterministic epidemic model taking account of repeated contacts between the same individuals
• Deterministic epidemiological models at the individual level
• A note on a paper by Erik Volz: SIR dynamics in random networks
• A note on the derivation of epidemic final sizes
• Reproduction numbers for epidemics on networks using pair approximation
• The principle of the diffusion of arbitrary constants
• Dangerous connections: on binding site models of infectious disease dynamics
• Pairwise approximation for SIR-type network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery
• The correlation structure of epidemic models
• The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic

Cited In (10)

• Dominating occupancy processes by the independent site approximation
• Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks
• Pairwise approximation for SIR-type network epidemics with non-Markovian recovery
• A nonstandard finite difference scheme for the SVICDR model to predict COVID-19 dynamics
• Solvability of implicit final size equations for SIR epidemic models
• A SIR-based model for contact-based messaging applications supported by permanent infrastructure
• The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic
• Spreading of infection on temporal networks: an edge-centered, contact-based perspective
• Transmission dynamics of a two-strain pairwise model with infection age
• Epidemic model on a network: analysis and applications to COVID-19

This page was built for publication: The relationships between message passing, pairwise, Kermack-McKendrick and stochastic SIR epidemic models

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q1679013)