Overconfidence by Bayesian-rational agents

DOI10.1287/MNSC.1110.1323MaRDI QIDQ3019537zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Eric van Den Steen

Publication date 28 July 2011

Published in Management Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://semanticscholar.org/paper/633242242a7350e30663b25c01fc61f6d836d0ca

zbMATH Keywords

decision analysisriskheterogeneous priorsBayesian updatingoverconfidencediffering priors

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Decision theory (91B06) Rationality and learning in game theory (91A26)

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• Trust and the value of overconfidence: a Bayesian perspective on social network communication
• Human capital accumulation and the evolution of overconfidence
• Overconfidence and timing of entry
• Confidence biases and learning among intuitive Bayesians
• A multi-agent model of misspecified learning with overconfidence
• On rationally confident beliefs and rational overconfidence
• Evolutionary justifications for non-Bayesian beliefs
• Overconfidence and social signalling
• Optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates
• Biased learning creates overconfidence
• Bayesian persuasion with heterogeneous priors
• Political disagreement and information in elections
• Conveying value via categories
• Advance selling decisions with overconfident consumers
• Bayesian optimism
• Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: Evidence from experimental asset markets
• Firms' diverse market beliefs can facilitate information sharing and improve profit performance
• Rational overconfidence and social security: subjective beliefs, objective welfare
• Apparent overconfidence

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