Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target

DOI10.1016/J.EJOR.2015.08.011zbMATH Open1346.91184arXiv1402.7163OpenAlexW2591605293WikidataQ114194242 ScholiaQ114194242MaRDI QIDQ320855FDOQ320855

Trine Krogh Boomsma, Salvador Pineda, Juan Miguel Morales

Publication date: 7 October 2016

Published in: European Journal of Operational Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a stochastic programming modeling framework to determine the expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using an illustrative four-node example and a more realistic 24-node case study.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1402.7163

zbMATH Keywords

bilevel programmingmarket designOR in energyexpansion planningrenewable energy sources

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of mathematical programming (90C90) Environmental economics (natural resource models, harvesting, pollution, etc.) (91B76)

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Cited In (3)

• Operations research in optimal power flow: a guide to recent and emerging methodologies and applications
• A long-term capacity expansion planning model for an electric power system integrating large-size renewable energy technologies
• Climate-aware generation and transmission expansion planning: a three-stage robust optimization approach

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