The patient-zero problem with noisy observations

DOI10.1088/1742-5468/2014/10/P10016zbMATH Open1456.92129arXiv1408.0907WikidataQ61444401 ScholiaQ61444401MaRDI QIDQ3301746FDOQ3301746

Authors: Fabrizio Altarelli, Alfredo Braunstein, Luca Dall'Asta, Alessandro Ingrosso, Riccardo Zecchina 

Publication date: 11 August 2020

Published in: Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: A Belief Propagation approach has been recently proposed for the zero-patient problem in a SIR epidemics. The zero-patient problem consists in finding the initial source of an epidemic outbreak given observations at a later time. In this work, we study a harder but related inference problem, in which observations are noisy and there is confusion between observed states. In addition to studying the zero-patient problem, we also tackle the problem of completing and correcting the observations possibly finding undiscovered infected individuals and false test results. Moreover, we devise a set of equations, based on the variational expression of the Bethe free energy, to find the zero patient along with maximum-likelihood epidemic parameters. We show, by means of simulated epidemics, how this method is able to infer details on the past history of an epidemic outbreak based solely on the topology of the contact network and a single snapshot of partial and noisy observations.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.0907

Recommendations

• Solving the patient zero inverse problem by using generalized simulated annealing
• Bayesian inference of spreading processes on networks
• Epidemiologic network inference
• Enhancing maximum likelihood estimation of infection source localization
• Bayesian inference for contact networks given epidemic data

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Cites Work

• What's in a crowd? Analysis of face-to-face behavioral networks
• Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. II. —The problem of endemicity
• Correctness of belief propagation in Gaussian graphical models of arbitrary topology
• Information, Physics, and Computation
• Rumors in a Network: Who's the Culprit?
• Max-Product for Maximum Weight Matching: Convergence, Correctness, and LP Duality
• Identifying Infection Sources and Regions in Large Networks
• Optimizing spread dynamics on graphs by message passing
• A rigorous analysis of the cavity equations for the minimum spanning tree
• Information dynamics shape the sexual networks of Internet-mediated prostitution

Cited In (3)

• The matrix product approximation for the dynamic cavity method
• Solving the patient zero inverse problem by using generalized simulated annealing
• A closure for the master equation starting from the dynamic cavity method

This page was built for publication: The patient-zero problem with noisy observations

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q3301746)