Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: the ‘optimal thermal causal path’ method
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Publication:3375402
DOI10.1080/14697680500383763zbMATH Open1134.91569arXivcond-mat/0408166OpenAlexW2952487919MaRDI QIDQ3375402FDOQ3375402
Authors: Wei-Xing Zhou, D. Sornette 
Publication date: 8 March 2006
Published in: Quantitative Finance (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: We introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag-lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists in constructing a distance matrix based on the matching of all sample data pairs between the two time series. Then, the lag-lead structure is searched as the optimal path in the distance matrix landscape that minimizes the total mismatch between the two time series, and that obeys a one-to-one causal matching condition. To make the solution robust to the presence of large noise that may lead to spurious structures in the distance matrix landscape, we then generalize this optimal search by introducing a fuzzy search by sampling over all possible paths, each path being weighted according to a multinomial logit or equivalently Boltzmann factor proportional to the exponential of the global mismatch of this path. We present the efficient transfer matrix method that solves the problem and test it on simple synthetic examples to demonstrate its properties and usefulness compared with the standard running-time cross-correlation method. We then apply our `Optimal Thermal Causal Path method to the question of the causality between ......
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0408166
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