The Improvement of Probability Judgements

DOI10.2307/2981425zbMath0479.62005OpenAlexW2395002205MaRDI QIDQ3938333

Dennis V. Lindley

Publication date: 1982

Published in: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.2307/2981425

zbMATH Keywords

calibrationpredictive distributionsscoring ruleslog-odds

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics (62A01)

Related Items (14)

SUPPORT FOR GEOMETRIC POOLING ⋮ Economic Darwinism: Who has the best probabilities? ⋮ Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts ⋮ Group decision analysis and its application to combining opinions ⋮ Coherent combination of experts' opinions. (With discussion) ⋮ Risk analysis of catastrophes using experts' judgements: An empirical study on risk analysis of major civil aircraft accidents in Europe ⋮ The value of a probability forecast from portfolio theory ⋮ Expert deference as a belief revision schema ⋮ Aggregating expert judgement ⋮ Fiducial inference in combining expert judgements ⋮ Calibrating expert assessments using hierarchical Gaussian process models ⋮ Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling ⋮ Some aspects of probability forecasting ⋮ Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review

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