scientific article; zbMATH DE number 1268826
capitalconsumptionincomplete datainput-output modelsmultisectoral dynamic modelPolish economyrandomness of technologystochastic and interval models
Multisectoral models in economics (91B66) Economic models of real-world systems (e.g., electricity markets, etc.) (91B74) Statistical methods; economic indices and measures (91B82) Research exposition (monographs, survey articles) pertaining to systems and control theory (93-02) Control/observation systems with incomplete information (93C41)
This book is concerned with input-output modelling by means of selected static and dynamic models, while taking into account incomplete data and the parameters of these models. Definitions of solutions to these models are given, their properties and main probabilistic characteristics are worked out. Stochastic and interval generalizations of traditional input-output models are formulated. The impact of input-output and capital matrices and of the time-lag-parameter on the balanced growth rate is investigated. The effect of the randomness of technology (described by means of both matrices) is much higher than those of the time-lag-parameter, that follows from the investigations. Applications of the new recursive methods in traditional input-output modelling, especially to the estimation of the intermediate demand are demonstrated. In the empirical part, based on current Polish input-output tables, the economy under study is split into two sectors: capital and consumption. For the two-sector economy the changes of the main indicators, in particular of the ratio of both sectors, are investigated. The second part of the empirical analysis is performed by means of a multisectoral dynamic model of the input-output type. By means of this model the following matters are investigated: the productivity of the Polish economy in consecutive years, balanced growth factors and interval balanced growth factors, the ``reference vectors of structure, the level of disequilibrium and ``weak points.
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