Stochastic epidemics in growing populations

DOI10.1007/S11538-014-9942-XMaRDI QIDQ458713zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Pieter Trapman, T. Britton

Publication date 8 October 2014

Published in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.3855

zbMATH Keywords

dynamic populationS(E)IR epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that three different scenarios may occur: 1) an epidemic never takes off, 2) an epidemic gets going and grows but at a slower rate than the community thus still being negligible in terms of population fractions, or 3) an epidemic takes off and grows quicker than the community eventually leading to an endemic equilibrium. Depending on the parameter values, either scenario 1 is the only possibility, both scenario 1 and 2 are possible, or scenario 1 and 3 are possible.

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• Branching Processes
• Epidemic and demographic interaction in the spread of potentially fatal diseases in growing populations
• Global dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size
• Mathematical tools for understanding infectious disease dynamics.
• Random graph dynamics
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• SEIRS epidemics with disease fatalities in growing populations
• A stochastic SIR model on a graph with epidemiological and population dynamics occurring over the same time scale
• The global dynamics for an age-structured SLIS model with the delay
• Stochastic effects on the dynamics of an epidemic due to population subdivision
• A Markov Chain Model of Population Growth with an Application in Epidemiology

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