Stochastic epidemics in growing populations

DOI10.1007/S11538-014-9942-XzbMATH Open1297.92074arXiv1309.3855OpenAlexW2014635512WikidataQ39351620 ScholiaQ39351620MaRDI QIDQ458713FDOQ458713

Authors: Pieter Trapman, T. Britton 

Publication date: 8 October 2014

Published in: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that three different scenarios may occur: 1) an epidemic never takes off, 2) an epidemic gets going and grows but at a slower rate than the community thus still being negligible in terms of population fractions, or 3) an epidemic takes off and grows quicker than the community eventually leading to an endemic equilibrium. Depending on the parameter values, either scenario 1 is the only possibility, both scenario 1 and 2 are possible, or scenario 1 and 3 are possible.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.3855

Recommendations

• SEIRS epidemics with disease fatalities in growing populations
• Disease invasion risk in a growing population
• scientific article
• Case fatality models for epidemics in growing populations
• Endemic infections in growing populations

zbMATH Keywords

dynamic populationS(E)IR epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Cites Work

• Stochastic epidemic models and their statistical analysis
• Global dynamics of a SEIR model with varying total population size
• Mathematical tools for understanding infectious disease dynamics.
• Random graph dynamics
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Branching Processes
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Epidemic and demographic interaction in the spread of potentially fatal diseases in growing populations
• Strong approximations for epidemic models
• Title not available (Why is that?)

Cited In (7)

• The global dynamics for an age-structured SLIS model with the delay
• A Markov Chain Model of Population Growth with an Application in Epidemiology
• Analysis on a diffusive two-stage epidemic model with logistic growth and saturated incidence rates
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• SEIRS epidemics with disease fatalities in growing populations
• A stochastic SIR model on a graph with epidemiological and population dynamics occurring over the same time scale
• Stochastic effects on the dynamics of an epidemic due to population subdivision

This page was built for publication: Stochastic epidemics in growing populations

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q458713)