SEIRS epidemics with disease fatalities in growing populations

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2017.11.006zbMATH Open1380.92065arXiv1703.09581OpenAlexW2768096514WikidataQ43923811 ScholiaQ43923811MaRDI QIDQ1698516FDOQ1698516

Authors: T. Britton, Désiré Ouédraogo 

Publication date: 15 February 2018

Published in: Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major outbreaks is deterministic. Depending on the values of the parameters, the following scenarios are possible. i) The disease dies out quickly, only infecting few; ii) the epidemic takes off, the extit{number} of infected individuals grows exponentially, but the extit{fraction} of infected individuals remains negligible; iii) the epidemic takes off, the extit{number} of infected grows initially quicker than the population, the disease fatalities diminish the growth rate of the population, but it remains super critical, and the emph{fraction} of infected go to an endemic equilibrium; iv) the epidemic takes off, the extit{number} of infected individuals grows initially quicker than the population, the diseases fatalities turn the exponential growth of the population to an exponential decay.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.09581

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zbMATH Keywords

endemic levelinitial growthSEIRS epidemicthreshold quantities

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

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Cited In (5)

• HOPF BIFURCATION OF AN SEIRS MODEL WITH AGE STRUCTURE AND TIME DELAY
• STABILITY ANALYSIS OF A SEIQRS EPIDEMIC MODEL ON THE FINITE SCALE-FREE NETWORK
• Epidemic and demographic interaction in the spread of potentially fatal diseases in growing populations
• Isolation in the control of epidemic
• Study on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model with nonlinear incidence rate

Uses Software

• deSolve
• diffEq

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