RESPONSE FUNCTIONS TO CRITICAL SHOCKS IN SOCIAL SCIENCES: AN EMPIRICAL AND NUMERICAL STUDY

DOI10.1142/S0129183104006236MaRDI QIDQ4669683zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Bertrand M. Roehner, J. V. Andersen, D. Sornette

Publication date 15 April 2005

Published in International Journal of Modern Physics C (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0402408

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Social and behavioral sciences: general topics (91C99)

Abstract: We show that, provided one focuses on properly selected episodes, one can apply to the social sciences the same observational strategy that has proved successful in natural sciences such as astrophysics or geodynamics. For instance, in order to probe the cohesion of a policy, one can, in different countries, study the reactions to some huge and sudden exogenous shocks, which we call Dirac shocks. This approach naturally leads to the notion of structural (as opposed or complementary to temporal) forecast. Although structural predictions are by far the most common way to test theories in the natural sciences, they have been much less used in the social sciences. The Dirac shock approach opens the way to testing structural predictions in the social sciences. The examples reported here suggest that critical events are able to reveal pre-existing ``cracks because they probe the social cohesion which is an indicator and predictor of future evolution of the system, and in some cases foreshadows a bifurcation. We complement our empirical work with numerical simulations of the response function (``damage spreading) to Dirac shocks in the Sznajd model of consensus build-up. We quantify the slow relaxation of the difference between perturbed and unperturbed systems, the conditions under which the consensus is modified by the shock and the large variability from one realization to another.

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Cited in

(3)

• Editorial: Tails and ties
• THE KEY ROLE OF SHORTCUTS OF SMALL-WORLD NETWORK IN OPINION FORMATION
• THE INFLUENCE OF AN INDIVIDUAL OPINION IN THE SZNAJD MODEL

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