A location-mixture autoregressive model for online forecasting of lung tumor motion

DOI10.1214/14-AOAS744zbMATH Open1303.62058arXiv1309.4144OpenAlexW1998484448MaRDI QIDQ483986FDOQ483986

Authors: Daniel Cervone, Natesh S. Pillai, Ross Berbeco, John Henry Lewis, Debdeep Pati 

Publication date: 17 December 2014

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Lung tumor tracking for radiotherapy requires real-time, multiple-step ahead forecasting of a quasi-periodic time series recording instantaneous tumor locations. We introduce a location-mixture autoregressive (LMAR) process that admits multimodal conditional distributions, fast approximate inference using the EM algorithm and accurate multiple-step ahead predictive distributions. LMAR outperforms several commonly used methods in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy using clinical data from lung tumor patients. With its superior predictive performance and real-time computation, the LMAR model could be effectively implemented for use in current tumor tracking systems.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.4144

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zbMATH Keywords

nonlinear time serieslikelihood approximationtime series motifsexternal beam radiotheraphylung tumor trackingmixture autoregressive processmultiple-step prediction

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical applications (general) (92C50) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20)

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Cited In (5)

• A time-varying seasonal autoregressive model-based prediction of respiratory motion for tumor following radiotherapy
• Tracking lung tumors in orthogonal X-rays
• A location-mixture autoregressive model for online forecasting of lung tumor motion
• On Construction and Estimation of Stationary Mixture Transition Distribution Models
• Symmetrical and asymmetrical mixture autoregressive processes

Uses Software

• R
• MASS (R)

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