A location-mixture autoregressive model for online forecasting of lung tumor motion

DOI10.1214/14-AOAS744MaRDI QIDQ483986zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Daniel Cervone, Natesh S. Pillai, Ross Berbeco, John Henry Lewis, Debdeep Pati

Publication date 17 December 2014

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1309.4144, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1414091216

zbMATH Keywords

nonlinear time serieslikelihood approximationtime series motifsexternal beam radiotheraphylung tumor trackingmixture autoregressive processmultiple-step prediction

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Markov processes: estimation; hidden Markov models (62M05) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical applications (general) (92C50) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20)

Abstract: Lung tumor tracking for radiotherapy requires real-time, multiple-step ahead forecasting of a quasi-periodic time series recording instantaneous tumor locations. We introduce a location-mixture autoregressive (LMAR) process that admits multimodal conditional distributions, fast approximate inference using the EM algorithm and accurate multiple-step ahead predictive distributions. LMAR outperforms several commonly used methods in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy using clinical data from lung tumor patients. With its superior predictive performance and real-time computation, the LMAR model could be effectively implemented for use in current tumor tracking systems.

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Cited in

(5)

• A time-varying seasonal autoregressive model-based prediction of respiratory motion for tumor following radiotherapy
• Tracking lung tumors in orthogonal X-rays
• A location-mixture autoregressive model for online forecasting of lung tumor motion
• On Construction and Estimation of Stationary Mixture Transition Distribution Models
• Symmetrical and asymmetrical mixture autoregressive processes

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Uses Software

• MASS (R)
• R

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