Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature: did Europe experience a little ice age?
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Abstract: We analyze the timing and extent of Northern European temperature falls during the Little Ice Age, using standard temperature reconstructions. However, we can find little evidence of temporal dependence or structural breaks in European weather before the twentieth century. Instead, European weather between the fifteenth and nineteenth centuries resembles uncorrelated draws from a distribution with a constant mean (although there are occasional decades of markedly lower summer temperature) and variance, with the same behavior holding more tentatively back to the twelfth century. Our results suggest that observed conditions during the Little Ice Age in Northern Europe are consistent with random climate variability. The existing consensus about apparent cold conditions may stem in part from a Slutsky effect, where smoothing data gives the spurious appearance of irregular oscillations when the underlying time series is white noise.
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Cites work
- A Bayesian Analysis for Change Point Problems
- A statistical analysis of multiple temperature proxies: are reconstructions of surface temperatures over the last 1000 years reliable?
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- Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature: did Europe experience a little ice age?
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Cited in
(4)- A Regional Archaeomagnetic Model for the Palaeointensity in Europe for the last 2000 Years and its Implications for Climatic Change
- Change points and temporal dependence in reconstructions of annual temperature: did Europe experience a little ice age?
- The Little Ice Age and 20th-century deep Pacific cooling
- A Composite Likelihood-Based Approach for Change-Point Detection in Spatio-Temporal Processes
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