Nonlinear predictive latent process models for integrating spatio-temporal exposure data from multiple sources

DOI10.1214/14-AOAS737zbMATH Open1304.62141arXiv1411.3479OpenAlexW2007910870WikidataQ55035313 ScholiaQ55035313MaRDI QIDQ484017FDOQ484017

Authors: Nikolay Bliznyuk, Joel Schwartz, Christopher J. Paciorek, Brent A. Coull 

Publication date: 17 December 2014

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related, particles in the greater Boston area. When multiple sources of exposure information are available, a joint model that pools information across sources maximizes data coverage over both space and time, thereby reducing the prediction error. We consider a Bayesian hierarchical framework in which a joint model consists of a set of submodels, one for each data source, and a model for the latent process that serves to relate the submodels to one another. If a submodel depends on the latent process nonlinearly, inference using standard MCMC techniques can be computationally prohibitive. The implications are particularly severe when the data for each submodel are aggregated at different temporal scales. To make such problems tractable, we linearize the nonlinear components with respect to the latent process and induce sparsity in the covariance matrix of the latent process using compactly supported covariance functions. We propose an efficient MCMC scheme that takes advantage of these approximations. We use our model to address a temporal change of support problem whereby interest focuses on pooling daily and multiday black carbon readings in order to maximize the spatial coverage of the study region.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.3479

Recommendations

• Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatiotemporal Modelling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area
• Bayesian Spatial Prediction of Random Space-Time Fields With Application to Mapping PM_2.5Exposure
• Modelling Daily Multivariate Pollutant Data at Multiple Sites
• Practical large-scale spatio-temporal modeling of particulate matter concentrations
• Dynamic models for spatiotemporal data

zbMATH Keywords

air pollutionGaussian processessemiparametric modelhierarchical modellikelihood approximationparticulate matterspatio-temporal modelcovariance taperingapproximate inference

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

Cites Work

• Semiparametric Regression
• Gaussian Markov Random Fields
• Generalized additive models. An introduction with R.
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations (with discussion)
• Bayesian Prediction of Spatial Count Data Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• An adaptive Metropolis algorithm
• Estimators of fractal dimension: assessing the roughness of time series and spatial data
• Accurate Approximations for Posterior Moments and Marginal Densities
• Combining Incompatible Spatial Data
• Partially Collapsed Gibbs Samplers
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Nonparametric regression with correlated errors.
• Smoothing Spline Models with Correlated Random Errors
• On the change of support problem for spatio-temporal data
• Statistical issues in studies of the long-term effects of air pollution: the Southern California Children's Health Study (with comments and rejoinder)
• Nonlinear predictive latent process models for integrating spatio-temporal exposure data from multiple sources
• Model Evaluation and Spatial Interpolation by Bayesian Combination of Observations with Outputs from Numerical Models
• Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatiotemporal Modelling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area

Cited In (5)

• Spatiotemporal exposure prediction with penalized regression
• Kernel machine and distributed lag models for assessing windows of susceptibility to environmental mixtures in children's health studies
• Nonlinear predictive latent process models for integrating spatio-temporal exposure data from multiple sources
• Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatiotemporal Modelling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area
• Identifying main effects and interactions among exposures using Gaussian processes

Uses Software

• GMRFLib
• SemiPar
• spBayes
• gamair

This page was built for publication: Nonlinear predictive latent process models for integrating spatio-temporal exposure data from multiple sources

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q484017)