A Bayesian approach for predicting the popularity of tweets

DOI10.1214/14-AOAS741MaRDI QIDQ484024zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Tauhid Zaman, Emily B. Fox, Eric T. Bradlow

Publication date 17 December 2014

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1304.6777, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1414091226

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian inferenceforecastingsocial networkstime seriesTwitter

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Graphical methods in statistics (62A09) Bayesian inference (62F15) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Economic time series analysis (91B84) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Abstract: We predict the popularity of short messages called tweets created in the micro-blogging site known as Twitter. We measure the popularity of a tweet by the time-series path of its retweets, which is when people forward the tweet to others. We develop a probabilistic model for the evolution of the retweets using a Bayesian approach, and form predictions using only observations on the retweet times and the local network or "graph" structure of the retweeters. We obtain good step ahead forecasts and predictions of the final total number of retweets even when only a small fraction (i.e., less than one tenth) of the retweet path is observed. This translates to good predictions within a few minutes of a tweet being posted, and has potential implications for understanding the spread of broader ideas, memes, or trends in social networks.

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Cites work

• A Bayesian approach for predicting the popularity of tweets
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Cited in

(14)

• Marked self-exciting point process modelling of information diffusion on twitter
• Group level social media popularity prediction by MRGB and Adam optimization
• Evolutionary prediction of nonstationary event popularity dynamics of Weibo social network using time-series characteristics
• Predicting the popularity of tweets using internal and external knowledge: an empirical Bayes type approach
• Nonlinear dynamics model for social popularity prediction based on multivariate chaotic time series
• Modelling of trends in Twitter using retweet graph dynamics
• Predicting retweeting behavior based on BPNN in emergency incidents
• A Hierarchical Model of Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes for Twitter Retweets
• A Bayesian approach for predicting the popularity of tweets
• A short-term trend prediction model of topic over Sina Weibo dataset
• A short-term prediction model of topic popularity on microblogs
• Pairwise influences in dynamic choice: network-based model and application
• Enhancing social media post popularity prediction with visual content
• Filtering the intensity of public concern from social media count data with jumps

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