Splitting Trees Stopped when the First Clock Rings and Vervaat's Transformation

DOI10.1239/JAP/1363784434MaRDI QIDQ4918573zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Amaury Lambert, Pieter Trapman

Publication date 25 April 2013

Published in Journal of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1110.2929, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.jap/1363784434

zbMATH Keywords

age and residual lifetimebranching processcontour processCrump-Mode-Jagers processdetectionepidemiologyLévy processprocessor sharingresolventsamplingscale functionsplitting treeundershoot and overshootVervaat's transformation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Sample path properties (60G17) Processes with independent increments; Lévy processes (60G51) Point processes (e.g., Poisson, Cox, Hawkes processes) (60G55) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Markov renewal processes, semi-Markov processes (60K15) Queueing theory (aspects of probability theory) (60K25) Genetics and epigenetics (92D10) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Epidemiology (92D30) Ecology (92D40)

Abstract: We consider a branching population where individuals have i.i.d. life lengths (not necessarily exponential) and constant birth rate. We let $N_t$ denote the population size at time $t$. %(called homogeneous, binary Crump--Mode--Jagers process). We further assume that all individuals, at birth time, are equipped with independent exponential clocks with parameter $delta$. We are interested in the genealogical tree stopped at the first time $T$ when one of those clocks rings. This question has applications in epidemiology, in population genetics, in ecology and in queuing theory. We show that conditional on $T<infty$, the joint law of $(N_T,T,X^{(T)})$, where $X^{(T)}$ is the jumping contour process of the tree truncated at time $T$, is equal to that of $(M,-I_M,{Y_M}^{\prime })$ conditional on $Mot=0$, where : $M+1$ is the number of visits of 0, before some single independent exponential clock $mathbfe$ with parameter $delta$ rings, by some specified L{'e}vy process $Y$ without negative jumps reflected below its supremum; $I_M$ is the infimum of the path $Y_M$ defined as $Y$ killed at its last 0 before $mathbfe$; ${Y_M}^{\prime }$ is the Vervaat transform of $Y_M$. This identity yields an explanation for the geometric distribution of $N_T$ cite{K,T} and has numerous other applications. In particular, conditional on $N_T=n$, and also on $N_T=n,T<a$, the ages and residual lifetimes of the $n$ alive individuals at time $T$ are i.i.d. and independent of $n$. We provide explicit formulae for this distribution and give a more general application to outbreaks of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in the hospital.

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Cited in

(11)

• The reconstructed tree in the lineage-based model of protracted speciation
• Birth and death processes with neutral mutations
• Approximation of the allelic frequency spectrum in general supercritical branching populations
• Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process
• Phylogenetic analysis accounting for age-dependent death and sampling with applications to epidemics
• Time reversal dualities for some random forests
• On the outcome of epidemics with detections
• Shifting processes with cyclically exchangeable increments at random
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• The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data
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