The first moment of primes in arithmetic progressions: beyond the Siegel–Walfisz range

Abstract: We investigate the first moment of primes in progressions

sum_{substack{qleq x/N \ (q,a)=1}} Big(psi(x; q, a) - frac x{varphi(q)}Big)

as

x, N o i n f t y

. We show unconditionally that, when

a = 1

, there is a significant bias towards negative values, uniformly for

N l e q {m e}^{c s q r t l o g x}

. The proof combines recent results of the authors on the first moment and on the error term in the dispersion method. More generally, for

a i n m a t h b b Z s e t m i n u s 0

we prove estimates that take into account the potential existence (or inexistence) of Landau-Siegel zeros.

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