The turning point and end of an expanding epidemic cannot be precisely forecast

DOI10.1073/PNAS.2007868117MaRDI QIDQ5073188zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors M. H. Castro, Saúl Ares, S. C. Manrubia

Publication date 5 May 2022

Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007868117

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cites work

• COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2. Modeling the present, looking at the future
• Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow
• Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China
• Effects of quarantine in six endemic models for infectious diseases
• Mathematical modeling of the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) taking into account the undetected infections. The case of China
• Recurrent outbreaks of childhood diseases revisited: The impact of isolation
• The mathematics of infectious diseases
• The turning point and end of an expanding epidemic cannot be precisely forecast

Cited in

(12)

• What can we learn from COVID-19 data by using epidemic models with unidentified infectious cases?
• Probabilistic predictions of SIS epidemics on networks based on population-level observations
• Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden
• Epidemic oscillations induced by social network control
• The turning point and end of an expanding epidemic cannot be precisely forecast
• Chemotaxis and cross-diffusion models in complex environments: models and analytic problems toward a multiscale vision
• Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
• Vaccination strategies in structured populations under partial immunity and reinfection
• Study on the virulence evolution of SARS‐CoV‐2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID‐19
• An adaptive testing strategy for efficient utilization of healthcare resources during an epidemic
• A deterministic SAIR model with vaccination and treatment: dynamical behaviors and control strategies
• Can treatment increase the epidemic size?

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