Tail fitting for truncated and non-truncated Pareto-type distributions

DOI10.1007/S10687-016-0247-3zbMATH Open1360.62244arXiv1505.05189OpenAlexW1795962610MaRDI QIDQ508715FDOQ508715

Authors: Ivette Gomes, J. Beirlant, M. Isabel Fraga Alves 

Publication date: 8 February 2017

Published in: Extremes (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Recently some papers, such as Aban, Meerschaert and Panorska (2006), Nuyts (2010) and Clark (2013), have drawn attention to possible truncation in Pareto tail modelling. Sometimes natural upper bounds exist that truncate the probability tail, such as the Maximum Possible Loss in insurance treaties. At other instances ultimately at the largest data, deviations from a Pareto tail behaviour become apparent. This matter is especially important when extrapolation outside the sample is required. Given that in practice one does not always know whether the distribution is truncated or not, we consider estimators for extreme quantiles both under truncated and non-truncated Pareto-type distributions. Hereby we make use of the estimator of the tail index for the truncated Pareto distribution first proposed in Aban {it et al.} (2006). We also propose a truncated Pareto QQ-plot and a formal test for truncation in order to help deciding between a truncated and a non-truncated case. In this way we enlarge the possibilities of extreme value modelling using Pareto tails, offering an alternative scenario by adding a truncation point $T$ that is large with respect to the available data. In the mathematical modelling we hence let $Toinfty$ at different speeds compared to the limiting fraction ($k/no0$) of data used in the extreme value estimation. This work is motivated using practical examples from different fields of applications, simulation results, and some asymptotic results.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1505.05189

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zbMATH Keywords

truncationextreme quantilesendpointPareto-type distributionsQQ-plots

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Probability distributions: general theory (60E05) Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Nonparametric hypothesis testing (62G10) Asymptotic properties of nonparametric inference (62G20) Statistics of extreme values; tail inference (62G32)

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Cited In (16)

• Using jackknife to correct bias of MLE for the truncated Pareto distribution
• Estimating the second-order parameter of regular variation and bias reduction in tail index estimation under random truncation
• Robust quantile estimation under bivariate extreme value models
• Parameter Estimation for the Truncated Pareto Distribution
• Modelling censored losses using splicing: a global fit strategy with mixed Erlang and extreme value distributions
• Introduction to extreme value theory: applications to risk analysis and management
• Data-adaptive trimming of the Hill estimator and detection of outliers in the extremes of heavy-tailed data
• The PORTSEA (Portuguese School of Extremes and Applications) and a few personal scientific achievements
• Handling missing extremes in tail estimation
• A discrete truncated Zipf distribution
• TEMPERED PARETO-TYPE MODELLING USING WEIBULL DISTRIBUTIONS
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Comparing extreme models when the sign of the extreme value index is known
• A cluster truncated Pareto distribution and its applications
• Fitting tails affected by truncation
• Extreme value analysis without the largest values: what can be done?

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