Guessing about guessing: practical strategies for card guessing with feedback
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Publication:5094534
DOI10.1080/00029890.2022.2069986zbMATH Open1492.60019arXiv2012.04019OpenAlexW3110890092MaRDI QIDQ5094534FDOQ5094534
Authors: Persi Diaconis, Sam Spiro, Ron Graham 
Publication date: 3 August 2022
Published in: The American Mathematical Monthly (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: In simple card games, cards are dealt one at a time and the player guesses each card sequentially. We study problems where feedback (e.g. correct/incorrect) is given after each guess. For decks with repeated values (as in blackjack where suits do not matter) the optimal strategy differs from the "greedy strategy" (of guessing a most likely card each round). Further, both optimal and greedy strategies are far too complicated for real time use by human players. Our main results show that simple heuristics perform close to optimal.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.04019
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Cited In (13)
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- A simple card guessing game revisited
- Sequential importance sampling for estimating expectations over the space of perfect matchings
- The card guessing game: a generating function approach
- How to Beat Your Kids at Their Own Game
- Chance Expectancy with Trial-By-Trial Feedback and Random Sampling Without Replacement
- Card guessing and the birthday problem for sampling without replacement
- Guessing cards with complete feedback
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