On the Road to Making Science of “Art”: Risk Bias in Market Scoring Rules

DOI10.1287/deca.2017.0362OpenAlexW2802397222MaRDI QIDQ5118193

Majid Karimi, Stanko Dimitrov

Publication date: 7 September 2020

Published in: Decision Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2017.0362

zbMATH Keywords

decision analysisrisk aversionmarket liquidityprobability forecastprediction marketsmarket depthcost-function market makersmarket scoring rules

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Game theory, economics, finance, and other social and behavioral sciences (91-XX)

Related Items

\textit{Put your money where your forecast is}: supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets

Cites Work

• Probabilistic insurance
• Speculative Overpricing in Asset Markets With Information Flows
• Information Aggregation in Dynamic Markets With Strategic Traders
• Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders
• Modeling a Presidential Prediction Market
• MEASURES OF THE VALUE OF INFORMATION
• A Mechanism for Eliciting Probabilities
• A Truth Serum for Non-Bayesians: Correcting Proper Scoring Rules for Risk Attitudes
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large
• Elicitation of Personal Probabilities and Expectations

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