A stochastic model for the evolution of the influenza virus

MaRDI QIDQ5168342zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors J. Theodore Cox, Rinaldo Schinazi

Publication date 3 July 2014

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1302.2362

zbMATH Keywords

phylogenetic treemutation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Problems related to evolution (92D15) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35)

Abstract: Consider a birth and death chain to model the number of types of a given virus. Each type gives birth to a new type at rate $lambda$ and dies at rate 1. Each type is also assigned a fitness. When a death occurs either the least fit type dies (with probability $1-r$) or we kill a type at random (with probability $r$). We show that this random killing has a large effect (for any $r>0$) on the behavior of the model when $lambda<1$. The behavior of the model with $r>0$ and $lambda<1$ is consistent with features of the phylogenetic tree of influenza.

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• A Stochastic Model for Phylogenetic Trees
• Competitive evolution of H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses in the United States: a mathematical modeling study

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