On concentration properties of partially observed chaotic systems

DOI10.1017/APR.2018.21zbMATH Open1434.37047arXiv1608.08348OpenAlexW2962806633WikidataQ129483496 ScholiaQ129483496MaRDI QIDQ5215009FDOQ5215009

Authors: Daniel Paulin, Ajay Jasra, Alexandros Beskos, Dan Crisan 

Publication date: 5 February 2020

Published in: Advances in Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: This article presents results on the concentration properties of the smoothing and filtering distributions of some partially observed chaotic dynamical systems. We show that, rather surprisingly, for the geometric model of the Lorenz equations, as well as some other chaotic dynamical systems, the smoothing and filtering distributions do not concentrate around the true position of the signal, as the number of observations tends to infinity. Instead, under various assumptions on the observation noise, we show that the expected value of the diameter of the support of the smoothing and filtering distributions remains lower bounded by a constant times the standard deviation of the noise, independently of the number of observations. Conversely, under rather general conditions, the diameter of the support of the smoothing and filtering distributions are upper bounded by a constant times the standard deviation of the noise. To some extent, applications to the three dimensional Lorenz 63' model and to the Lorenz 96' model of arbitrarily large dimension are considered.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08348

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zbMATH Keywords

smoothingchaosdynamical systemfilteringLorenz equation

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Strange attractors, chaotic dynamics of systems with hyperbolic behavior (37D45) Complex behavior and chaotic systems of ordinary differential equations (34C28) Transition to stochasticity (chaotic behavior) for nonlinear problems in mechanics (70K55) Computational methods for attractors of dynamical systems (37M22)

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Cited In (4)

• Filter accuracy for the Lorenz 96 model: fixed versus adaptive observation operators
• A 4D-Var method with flow-dependent background covariances for the shallow-water equations
• Optimization based methods for partially observed chaotic systems
• Long-time asymptotics of the filtering distribution for partially observed chaotic dynamical systems

Uses Software

• RODES

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