Bayesian approach to SETI

DOI10.1073/PNAS.1808578115zbMATH Open1416.85003arXiv1810.01207OpenAlexW2893457544WikidataQ57062005 ScholiaQ57062005MaRDI QIDQ5222802FDOQ5222802

Authors: Claudio Grimaldi, Geoffrey W. Marcy 

Publication date: 3 July 2019

Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The search for technosignatures from hypothetical galactic civilizations is going through a new phase of intense activity. For the first time, a significant fraction of the vast search space is expected to be sampled in the foreseeable future, potentially bringing informative data about the abundance of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations, or the lack thereof. Starting from the current state of ignorance about the galactic population of non-natural electromagnetic signals, we formulate a Bayesian statistical model to infer the mean number of radio signals crossing Earth, assuming either non-detection or the detection of signals in future surveys of the Galaxy. Under fairly noninformative priors, we find that not detecting signals within about $1$ kly from Earth, while suggesting the lack of galactic emitters or at best the scarcity thereof, is nonetheless still consistent with a probability exceeding $10$ % that typically over $sim100$ signals could be crossing Earth, with radiated power analogous to that of the Arecibo radar, but coming from farther in the Milky Way. The existence in the Galaxy of potentially detectable Arecibo-like emitters can be reasonably ruled out only if all-sky surveys detect no such signals up to a radius of about $40$ kly, an endeavor requiring detector sensitivities thousands times higher than those of current telescopes. Conversely, finding even one Arecibo-like signal within $sim1000$ light years, a possibility within reach of current detectors, implies almost certainly that typically more than $sim100$ signals of comparable radiated power cross the Earth, yet to be discovered.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01207

Recommendations

• Quantifying the information impact of future searches for exoplanetary biosignatures
• Mathematical SETI
• Target detection from a classical and a Bayesian viewpoint
• Solving Fermi's paradox
• Targeted search for continuous gravitational waves: Bayesian versus maximum-likelihood statistics

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35) General questions in astronomy and astrophysics (85A04)

Cited In (4)

• A geometric framework for interstellar discourse on fundamental physical structures
• Mathematical SETI
• Solving Fermi's paradox
• Quantifying the information impact of future searches for exoplanetary biosignatures

This page was built for publication: Bayesian approach to SETI

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q5222802)