The Bass diffusion model on networks with correlations and inhomogeneous advertising

DOI10.1016/J.CHAOS.2016.02.039MaRDI QIDQ528306zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Yong-Cai Geng, Sumit K. Garg

Publication date 12 May 2017

Published in Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.06308

zbMATH Keywords

Bass equationcorrelated networksinnovation diffusionscale-free networks

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Deterministic network models in operations research (90B10) Consumer behavior, demand theory (91B42) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Abstract: The Bass model, which is an effective forecasting tool for innovation diffusion based on large collections of empirical data, assumes an homogeneous diffusion process. We introduce a network structure into this model and we investigate numerically the dynamics in the case of networks with link density $P(k)=c/k^{g}amma$, where $k=1,ldots,N$. The resulting curve of the total adoptions in time is qualitatively similar to the homogeneous Bass curve corresponding to a case with the same average number of connections. The peak of the adoptions, however, tends to occur earlier, particularly when $gamma$ and $N$ are large (i.e., when there are few hubs with a large maximum number of connections). Most interestingly, the adoption curve of the hubs anticipates the total adoption curve in a predictable way, with peak times which can be, for instance when $N=100$, between 10% and 60% of the total adoptions peak. This may allow to monitor the hubs for forecasting purposes. We also consider the case of networks with assortative and disassortative correlations and a case of inhomogeneous advertising where the publicity terms are "targeted" on the hubs while maintaining their total cost constant.

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Cites work

• A new product growth for model consumer durables
• Complex networks: structure and dynamics
• Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks
• Multiparameter models of innovation diffusion on complex networks
• The Structure and Function of Complex Networks

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• ADVERTISING AND IRREVERSIBLE OPINION SPREADING IN COMPLEX SOCIAL NETWORKS
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