The Bass diffusion model on networks with correlations and inhomogeneous advertising

DOI10.1016/J.CHAOS.2016.02.039zbMATH Open1360.91104arXiv1605.06308OpenAlexW2296688149WikidataQ57771430 ScholiaQ57771430MaRDI QIDQ528306FDOQ528306

Authors: Yong-Cai Geng, Sumit K. Garg 

Publication date: 12 May 2017

Published in: Chaos, Solitons and Fractals (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The Bass model, which is an effective forecasting tool for innovation diffusion based on large collections of empirical data, assumes an homogeneous diffusion process. We introduce a network structure into this model and we investigate numerically the dynamics in the case of networks with link density $P(k)=c/k^{g}amma$, where $k=1,ldots,N$. The resulting curve of the total adoptions in time is qualitatively similar to the homogeneous Bass curve corresponding to a case with the same average number of connections. The peak of the adoptions, however, tends to occur earlier, particularly when $gamma$ and $N$ are large (i.e., when there are few hubs with a large maximum number of connections). Most interestingly, the adoption curve of the hubs anticipates the total adoption curve in a predictable way, with peak times which can be, for instance when $N=100$, between 10% and 60% of the total adoptions peak. This may allow to monitor the hubs for forecasting purposes. We also consider the case of networks with assortative and disassortative correlations and a case of inhomogeneous advertising where the publicity terms are "targeted" on the hubs while maintaining their total cost constant.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1605.06308

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zbMATH Keywords

innovation diffusionscale-free networksBass equationcorrelated networks

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Deterministic network models in operations research (90B10) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30) Consumer behavior, demand theory (91B42)

Cites Work

• Complex networks: structure and dynamics
• The Structure and Function of Complex Networks
• A New Product Growth for Model Consumer Durables
• Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks
• Multiparameter models of innovation diffusion on complex networks

Cited In (9)

• The bass diffusion model: agent-based implementation on arbitrary networks
• On the evaluation of the takeoff time and of the peak time for innovation diffusion on assortative networks
• The Bass diffusion model on finite Barabasi-Albert networks
• Generating large scale‐free networks with the Chung–Lu random graph model
• Marketing new products: bass models on random graphs
• Influence maximization by rumor spreading on correlated networks through community identification
• ADVERTISING AND IRREVERSIBLE OPINION SPREADING IN COMPLEX SOCIAL NETWORKS
• Compartmental limit of discrete Bass models on networks
• Challenges in data science: a complex systems perspective

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