Diffusion of new products with recovering consumers

DOI10.1137/17M1112546zbMATH Open1378.91103arXiv1701.01669MaRDI QIDQ5348485FDOQ5348485

Authors: Gadi Fibich 

Publication date: 18 August 2017

Published in: SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider the diffusion of new products in the discrete Bass-SIR model, in which consumers who adopt the product can later "recover" and stop influencing their peers to adopt the product. To gain insight into the effect of the social network structure on the diffusion, we focus on two extreme cases. In the "most-connected" configuration where all consumers are inter-connected (complete network), averaging over all consumers leads to an aggregate model, which combines the Bass model for diffusion of new products with the SIR model for epidemics. In the "least-connected" configuration where consumers are arranged on a circle and each consumer can only be influenced by his left neighbor (one-sided 1D network), averaging over all consumers leads to a different aggregate model which is linear, and can be solved explicitly. We conjecture that for any other network, the diffusion is bounded from below and from above by that on a one-sided 1D network and on a complete network, respectively. When consumers are arranged on a circle and each consumer can be influenced by his left and right neighbors (two-sided 1D network), the diffusion is strictly faster than on a one-sided 1D network. This is different from the case of non-recovering adopters, where the diffusion on one-sided and on two-sided 1D networks is identical. We also propose a nonlinear model for recoveries, and show that consumers' heterogeneity has a negligible effect on the aggregate diffusion.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1701.01669

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zbMATH Keywords

agent-based modelsSIR modelmarketingBass modeldiffusion in social networks

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Marketing, advertising (90B60) Consumer behavior, demand theory (91B42)

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Cited In (11)

• The Bass diffusion model on finite Barabasi-Albert networks
• An estimation approach for the influential-imitator diffusion
• Rating customers according to their promptness to adopt new products
• Boundary effects in the discrete Bass model
• Diffusion of New Products with Heterogeneous Consumers
• Diffusion paths between product life-cycles in European phonographic market
• Aggregate diffusion dynamics in agent-based models with a spatial structure
• Diffusion of new products with recovering consumers
• Exact description of SIR-bass epidemics on 1D lattices
• Compartmental limit of discrete Bass models on networks
• Modeling the propagation of riots, collective behaviors and epidemics

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