Rigorous Computer Analysis of the Chow–Robbins Game

DOI10.4169/AMER.MATH.MONTHLY.120.10.893zbMATH Open1291.60017arXiv1201.0626OpenAlexW2963358877WikidataQ58243142 ScholiaQ58243142MaRDI QIDQ5404048FDOQ5404048

Authors: Olle Häggström, Johan Wästlund 

Publication date: 20 March 2014

Published in: The American Mathematical Monthly (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Flip a coin repeatedly, and stop whenever you want. Your payoff is the proportion of heads, and you wish to maximize this payoff in expectation. This so-called Chow-Robbins game is amenable to computer analysis, but while simple-minded number crunching can show that it is best to continue in a given position, establishing rigorously that stopping is optimal seems at first sight to require "backward induction from infinity". We establish a simple upper bound on the expected payoff in a given position, allowing efficient and rigorous computer analysis of positions early in the game. In particular we confirm that with 5 heads and 3 tails, stopping is optimal.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1201.0626

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zbMATH Keywords

expected payoffChow-Robbins gameoptimal shopping

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Computational methods in Markov chains (60J22) Combinatorial probability (60C05) Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory (60G40)

Cited In (6)

• On the \(\frac{S_n}{n}\) problem
• Computer solution to the game of pure strategy
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• An experimental mathematics perspective on the old, and still open, question of when to stop?
• On the minimum expected duration of a coin tossing game

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