A spatial analysis of multivariate output from regional climate models
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Publication:542461
DOI10.1214/10-AOAS369zbMATH Open1220.62152arXiv1104.2703OpenAlexW3105287796WikidataQ57815986 ScholiaQ57815986MaRDI QIDQ542461FDOQ542461
Authors: Reinhard Furrer, Noel Cressie, Stephan R. Sain 
Publication date: 10 June 2011
Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Climate models have become an important tool in the study of climate and climate change, and ensemble experiments consisting of multiple climate-model runs are used in studying and quantifying the uncertainty in climate-model output. However, there are often only a limited number of model runs available for a particular experiment, and one of the statistical challenges is to characterize the distribution of the model output. To that end, we have developed a multivariate hierarchical approach, at the heart of which is a new representation of a multivariate Markov random field. This approach allows for flexible modeling of the multivariate spatial dependencies, including the cross-dependencies between variables. We demonstrate this statistical model on an ensemble arising from a regional-climate-model experiment over the western United States, and we focus on the projected change in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the next 50 years.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1104.2703
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lattice dataBayesian hierarchical modelclimate changeconditional autoregressive (CAR) modelMarkov random field (MRF)
Directional data; spatial statistics (62H11) Random fields; image analysis (62M40) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)
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Cited In (37)
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- Stationary and isotropic vector random fields on spheres
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