Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment

DOI10.1007/S10687-010-0101-YMaRDI QIDQ549650zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Hayley J. Fowler, Daniel Cooley, Milo Thurston, Stephan R. Sain

Publication date 18 July 2011

Published in Extremes (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/s10687-010-0101-y

zbMATH Keywords

Akaike criteriongeneral circulation modelgeneralized extreme values

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics of extreme values; tail inference (62G32) Contingency tables (62H17) Analysis of variance and covariance (ANOVA) (62J10) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

Review text

The BBC Climate Change Experiment (CCE) is a perturbed-physics simulation experiment with General Circulation Models (GCM) of global climate. The authors develop a methodology of change detection in seasonal precipitation maxima distributions basing on the CCE data. A generalized extremal value (GEV) distribution is assumed for the maxima and different models of its shift parameter change are considered (linear trend, abrupt shift or a combination of both). The AIC criterion is used for model selection. The time of detectable differences is estimated. The second part of the study examines which parameters of the CGM have an influence on the shape parameter of the GEV and the detection time. One-way ANOVA and contingency tables analysis are used for this purpose.

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Cites work

• An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values
• Generalized Additive Modelling of Sample Extremes
• Model Selection and Multimodel Inference
• Multi-Dimensional Extensions of the Chebyshev Polynomials
• Statistics of Extremes
• The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble

Cited in

(2)

• The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble
• Stationary and nonstationary generalized extreme value modelling of extreme precipitation over a mountainous area under climate change

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• ismev

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