Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment (Q549650)

The BBC Climate Change Experiment (CCE) is a perturbed-physics simulation experiment with General Circulation Models (GCM) of global climate. The authors develop a methodology of change detection in seasonal precipitation maxima distributions basing on the CCE data. A generalized extremal value (GEV) distribution is assumed for the maxima and different models of its shift parameter change are considered (linear trend, abrupt shift or a combination of both). The AIC criterion is used for model selection. The time of detectable differences is estimated. The second part of the study examines which parameters of the CGM have an influence on the shape parameter of the GEV and the detection time. One-way ANOVA and contingency tables analysis are used for this purpose.