Modeling dengue outbreaks

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2011.04.006zbMATH Open1218.92054arXiv1012.1281OpenAlexW2101699873WikidataQ39329639 ScholiaQ39329639MaRDI QIDQ554475FDOQ554475

Authors: Marcelo Otero, Daniel H. Barmak, Claudio O. Dorso, Mario Natiello, Hernán G. Solari 

Publication date: 4 August 2011

Published in: Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We introduce a dengue model (SEIR) where the human individuals are treated on an individual basis (IBM) while the mosquito population, produced by an independent model, is treated by compartments (SEI). We study the spread of epidemics by the sole action of the mosquito. Exponential, deterministic and experimental distributions for the (human) exposed period are considered in two weather scenarios, one corresponding to temperate climate and the other to tropical climate. Virus circulation, final epidemic size and duration of outbreaks are considered showing that the results present little sensitivity to the statistics followed by the exposed period provided the median of the distributions are in coincidence. Only the time between an introduced (imported) case and the appearance of the first symptomatic secondary case is sensitive to this distribution. We finally show that the IBM model introduced is precisely a realization of a compartmental model, and that at least in this case, the choice between compartmental models or IBM is only a matter of convenience.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1012.1281

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zbMATH Keywords

epidemiologycompartmental modelindividual based model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical epidemiology (92C60)

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Cited In (18)

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• Stochastic stability of positive Markov jump linear systems
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• On the dynamics of dengue epidemics from large-scale information
• Dengue fever spreading based on probabilistic cellular automata with two lattices
• Model predictive control for continuous-time singular jump systems with incomplete transition rates
• Linear processes in stochastic population dynamics: theory and application to insect development
• Modelling the super-infection of two strains of dengue virus
• Vector-borne disease models with active and inactive vectors: a simple way to consider biting behavior
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• Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics
• EFFECT OF HUMAN MOBILITY ON PREDICTIVE SPATIO-TEMPORAL MODEL OF DENGUE EPIDEMIC TRANSMISSION
• Describing the geographic spread of dengue disease by traveling waves

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