A network-patch methodology for adapting agent-based models for directly transmitted disease to mosquito-borne disease
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Abstract: Mosquito-borne diseases cause significant public health burden, mostly in tropical and sub-tropical regions, and are widely emerging or re-emerging in areas where previously absent. Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the spread of mosquito-borne disease in diverse populations and geographies are ongoing modeling challenges. We propose a hybrid network-patch model for the spread of mosquito-borne pathogens that accounts for the movement of individuals through mosquito habitats and responds to environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature. Our approach extends the capabilities of existing agent-based models for individual movement developed to predict the spread of directly transmitted pathogens in populations. To extend to mosquito-borne disease, agent-based models are coupled with differential equations representing `clouds' of mosquitoes in geographic patches that account for mosquito ecology, including heterogeneity in mosquito density, emergence rates, and extrinsic incubation period. We illustrate the method by adapting an agent-based model for human movement across a network to mosquito-borne disease. We investigated the importance of heterogeneity in mosquito population dynamics and host movement on pathogen transmission, motivating the utility of detailed models of individual behavior. We observed that the total number of infected people is greater in heterogeneous patch models with one high risk patch and high or medium human movement than it would be in a random mixing homogeneous model. Our hybrid agent-based/differential equation model is able to quantify the importance of the heterogeneity in predicting the spread and invasion of mosquito-borne pathogens. Mitigation strategies can be more effective when guided by realistic models created by extending the capabilities of existing agent-based models to include vector-borne diseases.
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Cited in
(6)- Modeling host-seeking behavior of African malaria vector mosquitoes in the presence of long-lasting insecticidal nets
- A simple agent-based model of malaria transmission investigating intervention methods and acquired immunity
- On a Network Model of Two Competitors With Applications to the Invasion and Competition of Aedes Albopictus and Aedes Aegypti Mosquitoes in the United States
- Ebola outbreaks and international travel restrictions: case studies of Central and West Africa regions
- The risk matrix of vector-borne diseases in metapopulation networks and its relation with local and global \(R_0\)
- Epidemic spread on patch networks with community structure
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