A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics
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Publication:1784820
Abstract: Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human health. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model differentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among different provinces, but also it can reproduce the different starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations. Finally, the exact value of the reproduction number is numerically computed and upper and lower bounds for the reproduction number are analytically derived in the case of homogeneous populations.
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Cited in
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- Robustness of scale-free networks with dynamical behavior against multi-node perturbation
- A network-patch methodology for adapting agent-based models for directly transmitted disease to mosquito-borne disease
- Threshold dynamics in a periodic three-patch rift valley fever virus transmission model
- Multiseason transmission for Rift Valley fever in North America
- Modelling vertical transmission in vector-borne diseases with applications to Rift Valley fever
- Modeling the impact of climate change on the dynamics of rift valley fever
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- The network level reproduction number for infectious diseases with both vertical and horizontal transmission
- Global epidemic invasion thresholds in directed cattle subpopulation networks having source, sink, and transit nodes
- Modeling the spatial spread of rift valley fever in Egypt
- A modeling approach to investigate epizootic outbreaks and enzootic maintenance of rift valley fever virus
- Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a rift valley fever model
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