An empirically adjusted approach to reproductive number estimation for stochastic compartmental models: a case study of two ebola outbreaks

DOI10.1111/BIOM.12432MaRDI QIDQ5739255zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Grant D. Brown, Jacob J. Oleson, Aaron T. Porter

Publication date 15 July 2016

Published in Biometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.12432

zbMATH Keywords

disease modelingepidemic predictionmodel selectionspatial epidemiologyspatial SEIRunderspecification

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30)

Recommendations

• The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda
• Stochasticity and the limits to confidence when estimating \(\mathcal R_0\) of Ebola and other emerging infectious diseases
• Statistical Inference in a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model with Control Intervention: Ebola as a Case Study
• Joint estimation of the basic reproduction number and generation time parameters for infectious disease outbreaks
• Model selection and evaluation based on emerging infectious disease data sets including A/H1N1 and ebola

Cites work

• A structured epidemic model incorporating geographic mobility among regions
• Inference for individual-level models of infectious diseases in large populations
• Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences
• Statistical Inference in a Stochastic Epidemic SEIR Model with Control Intervention: Ebola as a Case Study
• The basic reproduction number in some discrete-time epidemic models
• The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics
• The mathematics of infectious diseases

Cited in

(11)

• The basic reproductive number of Ebola and the effects of public health measures: the cases of Congo and Uganda
• Ebola outbreak in west africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction
• Model selection and evaluation based on emerging infectious disease data sets including A/H1N1 and ebola
• Network-based analysis of a small Ebola outbreak
• Joint estimation of the transmissibility and severity of Ebola virus disease in real time
• Bayesian compartmental model for an infectious disease with dynamic states of infection
• Modelling the reproductive power function
• Incorporating infectious duration‐dependent transmission into Bayesian epidemic models
• Integrating independent spatio-temporal replications to assess population trends in disease spread
• Assessing inference of the basic reproduction number in an SIR model incorporating a growth-scaling parameter
• Stochasticity and the limits to confidence when estimating \(\mathcal R_0\) of Ebola and other emerging infectious diseases

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• R
• libspatialSEIR
• GitHub

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