Power-law models for infectious disease spread
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Publication:58327
DOI10.1214/14-AOAS743zbMATH Open1304.62135arXiv1308.5115MaRDI QIDQ58327FDOQ58327
Sebastian Meyer, Leonhard Held, Sebastian Meyer, Leonhard Held
Publication date: 1 September 2014
Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Short-time human travel behaviour can be described by a power law with respect to distance. We incorporate this information in space-time models for infectious disease surveillance data to better capture the dynamics of disease spread. Two previously established model classes are extended, which both decompose disease risk additively into endemic and epidemic components: a spatio-temporal point process model for individual-level data and a multivariate time-series model for aggregated count data. In both frameworks, a power-law decay of spatial interaction is embedded into the epidemic component and estimated jointly with all other unknown parameters using (penalised) likelihood inference. Whereas the power law can be based on Euclidean distance in the point process model, a novel formulation is proposed for count data where the power law depends on the order of the neighbourhood of discrete spatial units. The performance of the new approach is investigated by a reanalysis of individual cases of invasive meningococcal disease in Germany (2002-2008) and count data on influenza in 140 administrative districts of Southern Germany (2001-2008). In both applications, the power law substantially improves model fit and predictions, and is reasonably close to alternative qualitative formulations, where distance and order of neighbourhood, respectively, are treated as a factor. Implementation in the R package surveillance allows the approach to be applied in other settings.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1308.5115
branching process with immigrationinfectious disease surveillancemultivariate time series of countspower lawspatial interaction functionspatio-temporal point processstochastic epidemic modelling
Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30)
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