A space-time conditional intensity model for invasive meningococcal disease occurrence
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Publication:58331
DOI10.1111/J.1541-0420.2011.01684.XzbMATH Open1274.92034arXiv1508.05740OpenAlexW1972203532WikidataQ44257285 ScholiaQ44257285MaRDI QIDQ58331FDOQ58331
Authors: Sebastian Meyer, Johannes Elias, Michael Höhle 
Publication date: 9 October 2011
Published in: Biometrics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: A novel point process model continuous in space-time is proposed for quantifying the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002-2008. Modelling is based on the conditional intensity function (CIF) which is described by a superposition of additive and multiplicative components. As an epidemiological interesting finding, spread behaviour was shown to depend on type in addition to age: basic reproduction numbers were 0.25 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) and 0.11 (95% CI 0.07-0.17) for types B:P1.7-2,4:F1-5 and C:P1.5,2:F3-3, respectively. Altogether, the proposed methodology represents a comprehensive and universal regression framework for the modelling, simulation and inference of self-exciting spatio-temporal point processes based on the CIF. Usability of the modelling in biometric practice is promoted by an implementation in the R package surveillance.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1508.05740
Recommendations
conditional intensity functioninfectious disease surveillance dataspatiotemporal point processstochastic epidemic modeling
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