Stochastic declustering of earthquakes with the spatiotemporal renewal ETAS model

DOI10.1214/23-AOAS1756MaRDI QIDQ6138629zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Tom Stindl, Feng Chen

Publication date 16 January 2024

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2207.01816

zbMATH Keywords

renewal processsemiparametricpoint processseismologyself-exciting

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics (62Pxx)

Abstract: Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are point processes that have found prominence in seismological modeling. Its success has led to the development of a number of different versions of the ETAS model. Among these extensions is the RETAS model which has shown potential to improve the modeling capabilities of the ETAS class of models. The RETAS model endows the main-shock arrival process with a renewal process which serves as an alternative to the homogeneous Poisson process. Model fitting is performed using likelihood-based estimation by directly optimizing the exact likelihood. However, inferring the branching structure from the fitted RETAS model remains a challenging task since the declustering algorithm that is currently available for the ETAS model is not directly applicable. This article solves this problem by developing an iterative algorithm to calculate the smoothed main and aftershock probabilities conditional on all available information contained in the catalog. Consequently, an objective estimate of the spatial intensity function can be obtained and an iterative semi-parametric approach is implemented to estimate model parameters with information criteria used for tuning the smoothing parameters. The methods proposed herein are illustrated on simulated data and a New Zealand earthquake catalog.

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