Parameter estimation from ICC curves

DOI10.1080/17513758.2021.1912419MaRDI QIDQ5861371zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Joceline Lega

Publication date 4 March 2022

Published in Journal of Biological Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.08134

zbMATH Keywords

parameter identificationcompartmental modelsoutbreak

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: Incidence vs Cumulative Cases (ICC) curves are introduced and shown to provide a simple framework for parameter identification in the case of the most elementary epidemiological model, consisting of susceptible, infected, and removed compartments. This novel methodology is used to estimate the basic reproduction ratio of recent outbreaks, including the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic.

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Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 2198522 (Why is no real title available?)
• Identifiability and estimation of multiple transmission pathways in cholera and waterborne disease
• On identifiability of nonlinear ODE models and applications in viral dynamics
• On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio \(R_ 0\) in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
• Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission
• Structural and practical identifiability analysis of outbreak models
• The mathematics of infectious diseases
• The structural identifiability of the susceptible infected recovered model with seasonal forcing

Cited in

(6)

• On stable parameter estimation and short-term forecasting with quantified uncertainty with application to COVID-19 transmission
• A robust phenomenological approach to investigate COVID-19 data for France
• On COVID-19 outbreaks predictions: issues on stability, parameter sensitivity, and precision
• Epidemics from the Eye of the Pathogen
• Parametric estimation for the incubation period distribution of COVID-19 under doubly interval censoring
• On the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemiological parameters using only the series of deceased. A study of the Spanish outbreak using genetic algorithms

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• Maple

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