Epidemics from the Eye of the Pathogen

DOI10.1137/21M1450719zbMATH Open1518.92160arXiv2103.12848MaRDI QIDQ6038779FDOQ6038779

Authors: Faryad Darabi Sahneh, William D. Fries, Joseph C. Watkins, Joceline Lega 

Publication date: 3 May 2023

Published in: SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: While a common trend in disease modeling is to develop models of increasing complexity, it was recently pointed out that outbreaks appear remarkably simple when viewed in the incidence vs. cumulative cases (ICC) plane. This article details the theory behind this phenomenon by analyzing the stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model in the cumulative cases domain. We prove that the Markov chain associated with this model reduces, in the ICC plane, to a pure birth chain for the cumulative number of cases, whose limit leads to an independent increments Gaussian process that fluctuates about a deterministic ICC curve. We calculate the associated variance and quantify the additional variability due to estimating incidence over a finite period of time. We also illustrate the universality brought forth by the ICC concept on real-world data for Influenza A and for the COVID-19 outbreak in Arizona.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.12848

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zbMATH Keywords

Gaussian processcomplexity reductionepidemicsstochastic modelingcumulative cases

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Functional limit theorems; invariance principles (60F17)

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Cited In (5)

• The Cluster That Never Was: Germ Warfare Experiments and Health Authority Reality in Dorset
• Parameter estimation from ICC curves
• Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process
• The language of epidemic
• A martingale formulation for stochastic compartmental susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models to analyze finite size effects in COVID-19 case studies

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