Epidemics from the Eye of the Pathogen

DOI10.1137/21M1450719MaRDI QIDQ6038779zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Faryad Darabi Sahneh, William D. Fries, Joseph C. Watkins, Joceline Lega

Publication date 3 May 2023

Published in SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.12848

zbMATH Keywords

Gaussian processcomplexity reductionepidemicsstochastic modelingcumulative cases

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Functional limit theorems; invariance principles (60F17)

Abstract: While a common trend in disease modeling is to develop models of increasing complexity, it was recently pointed out that outbreaks appear remarkably simple when viewed in the incidence vs. cumulative cases (ICC) plane. This article details the theory behind this phenomenon by analyzing the stochastic SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model in the cumulative cases domain. We prove that the Markov chain associated with this model reduces, in the ICC plane, to a pure birth chain for the cumulative number of cases, whose limit leads to an independent increments Gaussian process that fluctuates about a deterministic ICC curve. We calculate the associated variance and quantify the additional variability due to estimating incidence over a finite period of time. We also illustrate the universality brought forth by the ICC concept on real-world data for Influenza A and for the COVID-19 outbreak in Arizona.

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Cited in

(5)

• Unifying incidence and prevalence under a time-varying general branching process
• A martingale formulation for stochastic compartmental susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models to analyze finite size effects in COVID-19 case studies
• The language of epidemic
• Parameter estimation from ICC curves
• The Cluster That Never Was: Germ Warfare Experiments and Health Authority Reality in Dorset

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