A Mechanistic Model of Annual Sulfate Concentrations in the United States

DOI10.1080/01621459.2022.2027774zbMATH Open1506.62474arXiv2010.04253OpenAlexW3092200539MaRDI QIDQ5881111FDOQ5881111

Authors: Nathan B. Wikle, Ephraim M. Hanks, Lucas Henneman, Corwin Matthew Zigler 

Publication date: 9 March 2023

Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We develop a mechanistic model to analyze the impact of sulfur dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants on average sulfate concentrations in the central United States. A multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process is used to approximate the dynamics of the underlying space-time chemical transport process, and its distributional properties are leveraged to specify novel probability models for spatial data (i.e., spatially-referenced data with no temporal replication) that are viewed as either a snapshot or a time-averaged observation of the OU process. Air pollution transport dynamics determine the mean and covariance structure of our atmospheric sulfate model, allowing us to infer which process dynamics are driving observed air pollution concentrations. We use these inferred dynamics to assess the regulatory impact of flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) technologies on human exposure to sulfate aerosols.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.04253

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zbMATH Keywords

air pollutionOrnstein-Uhlenbeck processspatial statisticsSDEsspacetime processes

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Directional data; spatial statistics (62H11) Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from spatial processes (62M30) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

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Cited In (5)

• Assessing annual trends, monthly fluctuations and between‐station relationship of sulphate deposition in the Turkey Lakes Watershed
• An annual wet sulfate deposition index
• A diffusion-based spatio-temporal extension of Gaussian Matérn fields
• Mechanistic spatial models for heavy metal pollution
• Causal health impacts of power plant emission controls under modeled and uncertain physical process interference

Uses Software

• spBayes

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